How is it already August…?! 

We say it every year, but 2025has flown by. And with Q4 approaching even faster, it’s already time for your brand to prep for BFCM 2025. Between shifting consumer behaviors, global supply chain challenges, and new pressure on ad performance, brands need a full game plan to tackle Black Friday.

But don’t worry! We’ve put together a guide that breaks down this year’s emerging trends, channel-specific advice, and forward-thinking strategies to help you build an effective e-commerce holiday strategy that not only drives revenue but builds long-term brand equity. 

Our Predictions and What to Watch for Q4:

Here’s a look at what our team is predicting Q4 will look like and the consumer behaviors to follow.

Holiday Spending Forecast for 2025

Consumer spending is still projected to grow year-over-year, but at a slower pace, given the hesitation to overspend in this economy. 

According to Adobe’s 2025 Holiday Shopping Insights, flexible payment options like Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL), loyalty-based perks, and early access offers will play a significant role in purchase decisions. Mobile shopping is expected to continue its dominance, with over 53% of online purchases forecasted to occur on smartphones.

Salesforce’s Retail Trends confirm that consumers are responding to loyalty-based experiences, early access deals, and omnichannel fulfillment options. Successful brands are the ones making the buyer’s journey feel personal and, most importantly, fun.

This is the year to double down on your customer loyalty strategies and make it clear what shoppers will miss out on if they’re not already part of your program. Make your customers feel the FOMO this holiday season!

Calendar Shifts and Marketing Timing

Thanksgiving falls late again this year, on November 27, which shortens the window between Black Friday and Christmas. This is going to cause consumers to start their holiday shopping even sooner. 

In 2024, 8% of shoppers started their holiday shopping in September and 19% started in October, while just over half began in November. That means brands will need to drive urgency earlier, using holiday marketing strategies that incentivize customers to shop before peak shipping congestion.

Supply Chain + Tariff Impacts

Tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and Canada are driving up costs across core holiday categories like toys, apparel, and electronics. In response, major brands are adjusting their pricing strategies—Procter & Gamble has announced 5% price increases on select items, while Nike is gradually raising prices across its product lines. 

Some companies are even simplifying their products to avoid tariff-related fees. Reuters reports that several brands are removing accessories, like batteries, to stay within more affordable import thresholds.

Source: Newsweek

These changes are already shaping consumer behavior. According to recent surveys, more than 8 in 10 shoppers are rethinking their spending in response to tariffs. While 48% are actively seeking out discounts to help absorb rising costs, 68% of loyal customers say they’re willing to stick with brands they trust, even if prices climb. 

However, market researcher David Riedel cautions that steep tariffs, like the 55% rates applied to some Chinese goods, could significantly dampen overall holiday spending.

Brands that are adapting early are best positioned to ride out these shifts. Simplifying packaging, nearshoring production, and securing inventory well ahead of peak demand are smart plays heading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025. Delayed fulfillment during the narrow window between Black Friday and holiday shipping cutoffs could mean lost revenue and lost loyalty.

Social Discovery and TikTok’s Unique Role

As Gen Z and Millennials continue to drive online sales, TikTok has become a primary discovery channel. 

But unlike traditional ad platforms, TikTok shoppers aren’t starting with purchase intent. They’re driven by discovery, relatability, and emotional pull. Your content (and even paid ads) should feel like a recommendation from a friend, not a sales pitch.

To succeed on TikTok, start your campaigns early. We recommend you create content such as behind-the-scenes product teasers, User-Generated Content (UGC), and countdown videos that capitalize on the platform’s authentic, unpolished aesthetic. During Cyber Week, that brand trust turns into sales, even if the discounts aren’t the largest. 

The Role of Personalization in Cyber Monday 2025

The most effective holiday marketing checklist for 2025 includes personalized landing pages, product recommendations, and abandoned cart retargeting. Highlighting “back in stock” items or showcasing inventory levels can further drive urgency. Brands like Abercrombie already practice this by showcasing how many people are viewing the item that’s in your cart and the inventory level. 

Source: Abercrombie

Another practice is creating hyper-personalized cart recovery messages that reference browsing history, past purchases, and engagement patterns. 

For example, let’s say a person recently purchased a pair of jeans from your site but also opened a tank top during their session without purchasing. You could then send them an email addressing that tank top they didn’t purchase and explain how it matches the jeans or could be paired with other items on your site or from their purchase history. 

Campaigns that lean into personalization and exclusivity will perform better than broad-discount blasts. For example, 36% of MACHETE’s revenue from media was driven by sales in Q4 by focusing on paid media campaigns tailored to clear audience segmentation and creative testing. 

During BFCM 2025, consumers want to feel recognized and valued by the brands they engage with. That sense of connection can be the deciding factor between choosing your product or a competitor’s, and it’s often what turns a one-time buyer into a loyal customer.

4 Takeaways for BFCM 2025 Success

Here are our team’s main takeaways to help your brand succeed during this year’s BFCM. 

1. Build a Cohesive Campaign Timeline

One of the most effective ways to prepare for BFCM 2025 is by mapping your messaging week-by-week:

• Before Cyber Week: Focus on building momentum. Promote gift guides, wishlisting tools, and tease early access sales.
• During Cyber Week: Highlight your best deals, restocks, and personalization offers. Use urgency—like limited quantities or low inventory callouts—to drive conversions.
• After Cyber Week: Don’t go silent. Use this time to extend select offers, promote digital gift cards, and remind customers of holiday shipping deadlines. It’s also a perfect window to invite them to your loyalty program or offer exclusive perks for members.

This full-cycle structure keeps your message relevant and consistent across platforms and sustains engagement beyond the initial sale.

2. Loyalty Starts Before the Sale

Want a way to boost your ROI before Cyber Week? Focus on loyalty acquisition early. Promoting your loyalty program ahead of BFCM 2025 builds up an owned audience that you can convert more efficiently once deals drop.

Source: ReallyGoodEmails

Target non-members via email, SMS, and Meta ads with clear messaging: if they’re not part of your loyalty program, they’ll miss out. 

For example, Yakima Valley Hops saw a 15X ROAS and $127,825.33 in sales from Meta ads alone during BFCM 2024. Use limited-time product drops, bonus offers, or member-only discounts to increase urgency.

Later in the season and into Q1, these loyalty channels become even more valuable. Campaigns like “double point” events or personalized reminders that shoppers have enough points for a free purchase can keep revenue moving during slower months. This is how you maintain Q4 momentum into Q1—all while reinforcing brand loyalty.

3. Make Standout Customer Experiences

Sales alone aren’t enough to make customers choose your brand. Here’s what works:

• Provide early access to existing customers: These are your highest-value shoppers—make them feel prioritized, and they’ll return the favor.
• Offer VIP experiences that create FOMO: Create a password-protected section of your site where VIPs can unlock early deals, driving both exclusivity and urgency.
• Leverage segmentation: Use customer data to offer personalized bundles or cross-sell recommendations, especially during the highest-traffic days.

These tactics increase conversions, elevate your brand perception, and help set you apart in a saturated marketplace.

4. Simplify Your E-Commerce Website

On a website, less is always more—especially during a busy shopping season. 

Your e-commerce site should be suited for both mobile and web, making it easy for users to navigate from the initial search of an item to adding it to the cart. 

Your website should include: 

• Easy navigation
• Internal site search
• Fast website speed
• Product filters
• Interactivity and product videos
• Reviews and FAQs
• Simple checkout process
• Multiple payment options
• Help center

Since over half of consumers shop on mobile, your website should work seamlessly to ensure a quick checkout process. 

Your site on mobile should include:

• Responsive, suited-for-mobile design
• Fast speed
• A dedicated app
• Search bar above the fold
• High-quality images
• Touch interactions 
• User-friendly interfaces

Here are some examples of great e-commerce websites suited for mobile: 

Source: Groovecommerce

Your Go-To Checklist for BCFM 2025

Here’s a quick overview of what your brand needs to accomplish to beat out competitors before holiday shopping begins.

Prepare for BCFM 2025 with Intention, not Speed

Your holiday marketing strategies for 2025 shouldn’t be solely based on chasing conversions. You’ve got to play the long game and deepen your customer relationships first.

Our advice? Start those conversations early. Prioritize personalized experiences, build momentum across discovery platforms like TikTok, and create moments that make customers want to come back. Your brand will see the most impact when it thinks beyond flash sales and focuses on long-term value.

Oh, and hire an award-winning marketing agency like Marketwake to help get you through it. View what our Paid Media services can do for you during BFCM 2025, and contact us today!

Frequently Asked Questions

When should my business start preparing for BFCM 2025?

Start planning in August or earlier to account for inventory, creative testing, and loyalty program ramp-up.

What are the predicted consumer trends for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025?

Expect mobile-first shopping, demand for personalization, flexible payment options, and early engagement through social discovery.

How can brands stand out during the highly competitive 2025 holiday season?

Focus on personalized experiences, exclusive early access offers, and social storytelling that builds brand trust.

What strategies should brands implement to handle supply chain disruptions during BFCM 2025?

Diversify your suppliers, plan early, and reduce complexity in your product packaging or bundles to streamline fulfillment.

How important are early access and VIP promotions during BFCM?

They’re essential for building loyalty, increasing conversion rates, and standing out amid discount-heavy competition.

What role does customer loyalty play in successful BFCM campaigns?

Loyalty programs help you market more efficiently, retain high-value customers, and drive repeat purchases beyond the holiday peak.